Analyses, opinions and recommendations

Analyses

Published: 1/1/2016 Modified: 6/10/2017

The CNB analyses systematically the main risks that may threaten financial system stability. Financial Stability and Macroprudential Diagnostics are the main CNB publications which present the results of analysis performed, warn about the main identified systemic risks to the stability of the financial system as a whole and discuss the measures taken by the CNB to preserve financial stability. In addition, the CNB may issue specific recommendations regarding the maintenance of financial stability.

The CNB analyses systematically the main risks to banking system stability stemming from the macroeconomic environment of credit institutions and the situation in the main borrowing sectors, as well as credit institutions’ ability to absorb potential losses should these risks materialise.

Financial Stability is the main CNB publication which presents the results of analysis performed, warns about the main identified systemic risks to the stability of the financial system as a whole and discusses the measures taken by the CNB to preserve financial stability. In view of the predominant role of the banking sector in financing the economy, the analysis focuses on this segment of the financial system. The publication Macroprudential Diagnostics is a quarterly analysis of systemic vulnerabilities and risks on the basis of data at the end of the previous quarter. The analysis is focused on summarizing the basic indicators of structural and short-term vulnerabilities and on identifying the most important short-term developments affecting Croatia's financial stability in the observed period. In addition to analysing potential triggers that may lead to the materialisation of risks in the system in the short run, measures and recommendations made by the CNB in order to maintain the country's financial stability are also discussed. Furthermore, in the analytical annex to this publication important current topics are further examined.

The purpose of Financial Stability and Macroprudential Diagnostics is to systematically inform financial market participants, other institutions and the general public about the vulnerabilities and risks threatening the financial system in order to facilitate their identification and understanding as well as to prompt all participants to undertake activities providing appropriate protection from the consequences should these risks actually occur. It also aims at enhancing the transparency of CNB actions to address the main vulnerabilities and risks and strengthen the financial system’s resilience to potential shocks that could have significant negative impacts on the economy. The purpose of these publications is also to encourage and facilitate a broader professional discussion on financial stability issues. All this together should help maintain confidence in the financial system and thus its stability.

In addition to analyses, opinions and recommendations regarding financial stability and systemic risks, published within Financial Stability, Macroprudential Diagnostics and other regular publications, the CNB may issue specific recommendations or warnings to draw attention to identified systemic risks or propose measures to prevent such risks, reduce their consequences and strengthen system resilience.

List of boxes and analytical annexes

Published: 26/2/2019 Modified: 1/8/2024

Corporate vulnerability indicators
MPD No. 23 July 2024, Box 1

The short-term rental market in Croatia
FSR No. 25, July 2024, Box 1

Can assets mitigate risks to financial stability associated with household debt?
FSR No. 25, July 2024, Box 2

Explaining the recent growth in general-purpose cash loans
FSR No. 25, July 2024, Box 3

How does NRR growth affect the loan repayment costs of households?
FSR No. 25, July 2024, Box 4

The decrease of bank importance in corporate financing in Croatia
FSR No. 25, July 2024, Box 5

Liquidity stress testing methodology
FSR No. 25, July 2024, Box 6

Analysis of banks’ exposures to non-financial corporations associated with commercial real estate
MPD No. 22, February 2024, Box 1

Increase in the buffer rate for systemically important credit institutions at system level
MPD No. 22, February 2024, Box 2

Monetary policy tightening amplifies bank profitability growth
MPD No. 21, September 2023, Box 1

Results of activities taken to inform consumers about interest rate risk
MPD No. 20, July 2023, Box 1

Financial stability concepts: systemic risks, resilience, macroprudential policy
FSR No. 24, May 2023, Box 1

Revision of the Croatian financial stress index following accession to the euro area
FSR No. 24, May 2023, Box 2

How inflation impacts households and their debt servicing capacity
FSR No. 24, May 2023, Box 3

Companies in bankruptcy
FSR No. 24, May 2023, Box 4

What does the introduction of the euro mean for banks?
FSR No. 24, May 2023, Box 5

Capital requirements for credit institutions in the prudential and resolution regulatory frameworks
FSR No. 24, May 2023, Box 6

Assessment of the macroprudential policy stance by applying the growth-at-risk approach
FSR No. 24, May 2023, Box 7

Estimation of the effect of excess profit tax on banks
MPD No. 19, February 2023, Box 1

Review of the ECB’s floor methodology for other systemically important institutions
MPD No. 19, February 2023, Box 2

The extent to which borrowers with EURIBOR-linked loans are vulnerable to interest rate changes
MPD No. 18, October 2022, Box 1

The effects of energy shocks on the operations of non-financial corporations in Croatia
MPD No. 18, October 2022, Analytical annex

Effects of war in Ukraine on the financial stability in Croatia - failure of a Russian-owned bank prevented
FS no. 23, May 2022. Box 1

How much would repayment costs grow for users of housing and consumer loans in the event of an interest rate increase
FS no. 23, May 2022. Box 2

ESRB warnings and recommendations on medium-term vulnerabilities on the residential real estate market
FS no. 23, May 2022. Box 3

The operation of FinTech companies in Croatia and the impact of the technology race on financial stability
FS no. 23, May 2022. Box 4

Improvement of the macroprudential stress testing system - dynamic balance sheet assessment
FS no. 23, May 2022. Box 5

The policies and ways to influence the residential real estate market
FS br. 23, May 2022. Box 6

Recovery of the performance of non-financial corporations in 2021
MPD No. 16, February 2022, Box 1

Improvements in the methodology of countercyclical buffer identification and calibration in Croatia
MPD No. 16, February 2022, Box 2

Consumer lending standards on the housing loan market
MPD No. 15, October 2021, Box 1

Impact of the support measures on changes in the credit risk cycle
MPD No. 14, July 2021, Analytical annex

A new source of data on consumer lending standards
FS no. 22, May 2021, Box 1

Commercial real estate market
FS no. 22, May 2021, Analytical annex

Regional differences in real estate demand
FS no. 22, May 2021, Box 2

Croatian firms with characteristics of the fourth industrial revolution (I4.0)
FS no. 22, May 2021, Box 3

The survival of zombie firms and risks to financial stability
FS no. 22, May 2021, Box 4

Climate changes and their importance for credit institutions
FS no. 22, May 2021, Box 5

Macro models for forecasting nonperforming loans
FS no. 22, May 2021, Box 6

What is behind the macroprudential measure on a temporary restriction of distributions?
MPD no. 13, February 2021, Box 1

Preliminary information on fiscal measures and moratoria introduced to mitigate the impact of the pandemic
MPD no. 12, October 2020, Analytical annex

Overview of the measures to help the economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic
FS no. 21, August 2020, Box 1

Commercial real estate market in Croatia
FS no. 21, August 2020, Box 2

Who applied for CES grants for job preservation?
FS no. 21, August 2020, Box 3

Digital business transformation: a channel for the preservation of bank profitability in Croatia
FS no. 21, August 2020, Box 4

NPL investors in Croatia
FS no. 21, August 2020, Box 5

Recent developments in general purpose cash loans
FS no. 21, August 2020, Analytical overview

Borrower-based macroprudential measures
MPD No. 10, February 2020, Box 1

Components and distribution of net household assets in Croatia
MPD No. 9, September 2019, Box 1

Indirect limit on the amount of loan repayment relative to debtor’s income
MPD No. 8, July 2019, Box 1

Financing of high-technology manufacturing firms in EU countries
MPD No. 8, July 2019, Analytical annex

Revision of the financial stress index for Croatia
FSR No. 20, May 2019, Box 1

Aggregate index of fiscal risk
FSR No. 20, May 2019, Box 2

Characteristics of indebted households in Croatia
FSR No. 20, May 2019, Box 3

Government's housing loans subsidy programme
FSR No. 20, May 2019, Box 4

Does intensified growth in general-purpose cash loans bring risks to financial stability?
Macroprudential Diagnostics No. 7, February 2019, Box 1

The effect of banking system concentration on financial stability
Macroprudential Diagnostics No. 6, October 2018, Box 1

Reducing the vulnerability of the non-financial corporate sector
Macroprudential Diagnostics No. 6, October 2018, Analytical annex

Systematised measurement of political and geopolitical risks – the case of Croatia
Financial Stability No. 19, May 2018, Box 1

Trends in the European residential real estate market
Financial Stability No. 19, May 2018, Box 2

Application of macroprudential measures related to the residential real estate market in the EU and EEA
Financial Stability No. 19, May 2018, Box 3

An overview of the application of the capital buffer for other systemically important credit institutions (O-SIIs) in EU member states, Norway and Island
Macroprudential diagnostics No. 4, February 2018, Box 1

Countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) – current application in the EU and the EEA countries
Macroprudential diagnostics No. 4, February 2018, Box 2

International Financial Reporting Standard 9 and its financial stability implications
Macroprudential diagnostics No. 4, February 2018, Analytical annex

Cyclical movement of loan quality in Croatia
Macroprudential diagnostics No. 3, October 2017, Box 1

Risk of non-financial corporations providing accommodation and food services
Macroprudential diagnostics No. 3, October 2017, Analytical annex

Identification of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a third country material for the Croatian banking sector
Macroprudential diagnostics No. 2, July 2017, Box 1

Measuring rating migration dynamics
Macroprudential diagnostics No. 2, July 2017, Analytical annex

Developments in household sector investments
Financial Stability No. 18, May 2017, Box 1

Divergence of real estate prices in Croatia from intrinsic value
Financial Stability No. 18, May 2017, Box 2

Change in the structure of bank funding sources and potential risks to financial stability
Financial Stability No. 18, May 2017, Box 3

The issue of interest rate risk – a review of the results of the Interest rate survey
Macroprudential diagnostics No. 1, February 2017, Analytical annex

Credit default swap (CDS) market
Financial Stability No. 17, July 2016, Box 1

Decomposition of changes in profitability of non-financial corporations in Croatia by means of the Jeon-Miller decomposition
Financial Stability No. 17, July 2016, Box 2

Comparative analysis of debt of the EU non-financial corporate sector by activity
Financial Stability No. 17, July 2016, Box 3

The single passport and its impact on financial stability
Financial Stability No. 17, July 2016, Box 4

Introduction of the capital buffer for other systemically important credit institutions
Financial Stability No. 17, July 2016, Box 5

Stress-testing dynamics
Financial Stability No. 17, July 2016, Box 6

An overview of macroprudential policies in EU member states and in Norway
Financial Stability No. 16, February 2016, Box 1

Shadow banking in Croatia
Financial Stability No. 16, February 2016, Box 2

Preliminary measurements of the deposit concentration risk
Financial Stability No. 16, February 2016, Box 3

Cost of bank capital
Financial Stability No. 16, February 2016, Box 4

International comparisons of bank profitability
Financial Stability No. 16, February 2016, Box 5

Redesigning the systemic risk map
Financial Stability No. 15, July 2015, Box 1

Interest rate risk in the Republic of Croatia
Financial Stability No. 15, July 2015, Box 2

Preliminary research of residential real estate market liquidity as a determinant of price dynamics
Financial Stability No. 15, July 2015, Box 3

Forecasting the probability of default of non-financial corporations by means of sectoral micro models with macroeconomic variables
Financial Stability No. 15, July 2015, Box 4

Determinants of credit supply and demand of households and corporates
Financial Stability No. 14, February 2015, Box 1

Macroeconomic credit risk models for the corporate and household sector
Financial Stability No. 14, February 2015, Box 2

Introduction of a countercyclical capital buffer
Financial Stability No. 14, February 2015, Box 3

A new approach to the decomposition of return on bank assets
Financial Stability No. 14, February 2015, Box 4

New methodological approach to stress testing
Financial Stability No. 14, February 2015, Box 5

A brief commentary on the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc
Financial Stability No. 14, February 2015, commentary

Announcement of a structural systemic risk buffer
Financial Stability No. 13, July 2014, Box 1

Household debt in the EU countries: how much more adjustment do we need?
Financial Stability No. 13, July 2014, Box 2

Model of net operating income of credit institutions
Financial Stability No. 13, July 2014, Box 3

Financial cycles and countercyclical capital buffer calibration
Financial Stability No. 13, July 2014, Box 4

Schematic representation of procedures in the implementation of capital buffers
Financial Stability No. 13, July 2014, Box 5

High-frequency financial stress indicators
Financial Stability No. 12, February 2014, Box 1

Real estate price model
Financial Stability No. 12, February 2014, Box 2

Resolution of the issue of non-performing loans of banks in Croatia
Financial Stability No. 12, February 2014, Box 3

Analysis of short-term resilience of the banking sector to liquidity shocks
Financial Stability No. 12, February 2014, Box 4

Monitoring systemic risk and designing macroprudential policy
Financial Stability No. 12, February 2014, Box 5

Systemic risk indicators
Financial Stability No. 11, July 2013, Box 1

Models of bank financing in the corporate sector
Financial Stability No. 11, July 2013, Box 2

Market power and stability of banks in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe
Financial Stability No. 11, July 2013, Box 3

Determinants of net interest margins in Central and Eastern Europe
Financial Stability No. 10, January 2013, Box 1

Assessment of the impacts of the RC credit rating downgrade on borrowing costs and access to foreign capital markets
Financial Stability No. 10, January 2013, Box 2

Improvement of the early warning system for signalling banks in difficulties
Financial Stability No. 10, January 2013, Box 3

Parent bank deleveraging and capital flows in Central and Eastern Europe
Financial Stability No. 9, June 2012, Box 1

Improvement of the methodology of household stress testing in relation to macroeconomic and financial shocks
Financial Stability No. 9, June 2012, Box 2

Bank earnings modelling in Croatia
Financial Stability No. 9, June 2012, Box 3

Financial conditions and real economic activity
Financial Stability No. 8, January 2012, Box 1

Supply and demand in Croatia’s corporate credit market
Financial Stability No. 8, January 2012, Box 2

The loan loss provisioning policy: a potential source of instability?
Financial Stability No. 8, January 2012, Box 3

Financial accounts for Croatia
Financial Stability No. 7, June 2011, Box 1
The link between interest rates on corporate loans and country risk
Financial Stability No. 7, June 2011, Box 2

The role of supply and demand in cyclical fluctuations of household debt
Financial Stability No 7., June 2011, Box 3

Macroeconomic shocks and corporate credit risk
Financial Stability No. 7, June 2011, Box 4

Credit risk models for specific bank portfolios
Financial Stability No. 7, June 2011, Box 5

Financial accounts for Croatia
Financial Stability No. 6, January 2011, Box 1

Credit dynamics and economic activity
Financial Stability No. 6, January 2011, Box 2

Credit policy of banks and household debt in 2009
Financial Stability No. 6, January 2011, Box 3

Patterns of corporate lending in crisis situations
Financial Stability No. 6, January 2011, Box 4

Materialisation of currency-induced credit risk in Swiss franc-indexed loans
Financial Stability No. 6, January 2011, Box 5

Modelling of bank risks based on composite CAMELS ratings
Financial Stability No. 6, January 2011, Box 6

Financial accounts for Croatia
Financial Stability No. 5, July 2010, Box 1

Credit market disequilibrium
Financial Stability No. 5, July 2010, Box 2

Impact of household debt growth in the pre-crisis period on financial stability
Financial Stability No. 5, July 2010, Box 3

Validation of placement classification systems by using data on multiple debtors
Financial Stability No. 5, July 2010, Box 4

Credit risk materialisation in Central and Eastern European countries
Financial Stability No. 5, July 2010, Box 5

Global Financial Crisis and Capital Inflows to Central and South Eastern European Countries
Financial Stability No. 4, February 2010, Box 1

Foreign Exchange Market and Monetary Policy Framework in Croatia
Financial Stability No. 4, February 2010, Box 2

Financial accounts for Croatia
Financial Stability No. 4, February 2010, Box 3

Household resilience to financial and macroeconomic shocks
Financial Stability No. 4, February 2010, Box 4

Improvements in Stress-Testing Techniques
Financial Stability No. 4, February 2010, Box 5

Determinants of Changes in Risk Premiums for European Emerging Markets
Financial Stability No. 3, June 2009, Box 1

What Affects CDS Spreads for Countries and Banks in the Central and Eastern European Region?
Financial Stability No. 3, June 2009, Box 2

Preliminary Financial Accounts for Croatia
Financial Stability No. 3, June 2009, Box 3

In Search for Subprime Loans to Households
Financial Stability No. 3, June 2009, Box 4

Initial Measurement of Corporate Sector Credit Risk
Financial Stability No. 3, June 2009, Box 5

Revision of the Stress-Testing Methodology
Financial Stability No. 3, June 2009, Box 6

Preliminary Financial Accounts for Croatia
Financial Stability No. 2, March 2009, Box 1

Determinants of Real Estate Prices
Financial Stability No. 2, March 2009, Box 2

Reputation Risk and Cross-Border Contagion
Financial Stability No. 2, March 2009, Box 3

Prudential Regulations and Cyclicality of Bank Capitalisation in Croatia
Financial Stability No. 2, March 2009, Box 4

Assessing the Impact of External Shocks on the Croatian Economy
Financial Stability No. 1, June 2008, Box 1

Optimal CNB International Reserves
Financial Stability No. 1, June 2008, Box 2

Preliminary Financial Accounts for Croatia
Financial Stability No. 1, June 2008, Box 3

Impact of the Macroeconomic Environment on Credit Risk
Financial Stability No. 1, June 2008, Box 4

Assessing Banking Sector Stability in Terms of Z-Score
Financial Stability No. 1, June 2008, Box 5

Monetary Policy Constraints in a Small Open and Euroised Economy
Financial Stability No. 1, June 2008, Box 6